Growth Recession

Growth recession is an expression coined by economist Solomon Fabricant, a professor at New York University, to describe an economy that is growing at such a slow pace that more jobs are being lost than are being added. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that goes on for more than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade. However, an economy that is growing but expanding more slowly than its long-term sustainable growth rate may still feel like a recession, or growth recession. It can seem this way even if the economy is not actually dipping below zero. This is because growth is so weak that unemployment rises and incomes fall, thus creating conditions that feel similar to a recession.

A growth recession is often associated with minimal price inflation because many people are out of work and may have to curtail discretionary spending, and as a result, inflation will remain low. However, people who are fortunate to have jobs in a growth recession may find that their real incomes and spending power increase. For borrowers, there may be a benefit because the lack of inflationary pressure means central banks are likely to keep interest rates low.

Growth recessions may not garner the same media attention as a recession, but they have a wide range of implications nonetheless. Many economists believe that between 2002 and 2003, the U.S. economy experienced a growth recession. Economists also described the years after the great recession of 2008-2009 as a growth recession because the economy grew, but at tepid rates over several years and often did not create enough jobs to either absorb new people entering the job market, or to reemploy those on the sidelines. For example in the second quarter of 2011, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 1.3% annual rate, according to the Commerce Department, far below the robust 3% rate that economists say is necessary to create jobs. Against that backdrop, consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity, rose just 0.1% in that quarter.

In fact, on several occasions over the past 25 years, the U.S. economy is said to have been in a growth recession. That is, in spite of gains in GDP, job growth was either non-existent or was being destroyed at a faster rate than new jobs were being added.