Charts for 5 Equity ETFs Suggest That the Bear Market Rally Is Ending

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is called Diamonds and is now below my annual pivot at $257.94 after staying below its monthly risky level at $265.49. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), known as Spiders, failed at my monthly risky level at $281.13.

Looking at a few more narrowly focused funds, the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), known as QQQs, failed to hold my monthly pivot at $174.32. Meanwhile, the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) is back below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $190.11 after stalling below its monthly risky level at $193.67. Turning our attention to small caps, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) failed to hold its 200-day SMA at $157.73 and its annual pivot at $157.49 but is above its monthly value level at $148.81.

Here are the daily charts.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)

The daily chart for Diamonds shows the 19.4% decline from its Oct. 3 high of $269.28 to its Dec. 26 low of $216.97. At today's low of $253.61, the ETF is up 16.9% from the low and down 5.8% from the high. Note that Dec. 26 was a "key reversal" day, as the close was above the Dec. 24 high. DIA set its 2019 high of $262.36 on Feb. 25 and then failed to hold my annual pivot at $257.94. If the ETF continues to fail between $257.94 and my monthly risky level at $265.94, the risk is to my semiannual pivot at $243.47. Note that the weekly chart is positive but overbought.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

The daily chart for Spiders shows the 20.5% decline from its Sept. 21 high of $269.28 to its Dec. 26 low of $233.76. At today's low of $274.36, the ETF is up 17.4% from the low and down 6.7% from the high. Note that Dec. 26 was a "key reversal" day, as the close was above the Dec. 24 high. SPY set its 2019 high of $281.87 on March 4, which was a failed test of its monthly risky level at $181.13. This ETF is flirting with its 200-day SMA of $274.84. If SPY continues to fail at my monthly risky level, the risk is to my semiannual pivot at $266.14. Note that the weekly chart is positive but overbought, but there's risk of a weekly "key reversal" given a close on Friday below $277.48.

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)

The daily chart for QQQ shows the 23.5% decline from its Oct. 1 high of $187.53 to its Dec. 24 low of $143.46. At today's low of $171.31, the ETF is up 19.4% from the low and down 8.6% from the high. QQQ set its 2019 high of $175.79 on March 4, which was a failed test of its monthly risky level at $174.32. This ETF is flirting with its 200-day SMA of $172.29. If QQQ continues to fail at my monthly risky level, the risk is to my annual and semiannual pivots at $169.27 and $167.53, respectively. Note that the weekly chart is positive but overbought, but there's risk of a weekly "key reversal" given a close on Friday below $171.76.

iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT)

The daily chart for IYT shows the 25.9% decline from its Sept. 14 high of $209.43 to its Dec. 24 low of $155.24. At today's low of $182.50, the ETF is up 17.6% from the low and down 12.9% from the high. The ETF set its 2019 high of $192.27 on Feb. 19, which was below my quarterly and annual risky levels at $195.81 and $196.35, respectively. IYT has been below its 200-day SMA of $190.10 since Feb. 26. If this ETF continues to fail below its 200-day SMA, the downside risk is to my semiannual value level at $159.81. Note that the weekly chart faces a downgrade to neutral given a close on Friday below $183.71.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

The daily chart for IWM shows the 27.4% decline from its Aug 31 high of $173.39 to its Dec. 24 low of $125.81. At today's low of $151.52, the ETF is up 20.4% from the low and down 12.6% from the high. The ETF set its 2019 high of $159.50 on Feb. 25, which was below my quarterly risky level at $160.93. This ETF has been below its 200-day SMA of $157.73 since March 4 and below its annual pivot of $157.59. If IWM continues to fail below its 200-day SMA and annual pivot, the downside risk is to my monthly and semiannual value levels at $149.77 and $148.81, respectively. Note that the weekly chart is positive but overbought, but it faces a downgrade to neutral given a close on Friday below $151.74.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any securities mentioned and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.